[04.10.2024] MARKET REPORT

Only wheat prices rose last week. US agricultural products are now considered very cheap and competitive in the world.

Wheat

• US wheat prices continue to rise as drought in the EU – the world’s largest wheat producing region – is reducing yields and sowing progress for next season; meanwhile US wheat production is stable and exports are strong to the EU and other regions.

• The US sold 447,000 tonnes of wheat during the week, which is considered a fairly good recovery.

• US wheat export forecasts remain high for the next few months.

• Russian wheat exports via Black Sea ports have recovered after a two-week decline, supported by tenders from Egypt and Algeria.

• Rouen (France) weekly wheat exports totaled just 7.5 thousand tonnes; no signs of recovery.

• Australian wheat exports fell in August after rising in July, while barley exports remained stable, with continued flows to China.

• India's domestic wheat prices continued to rise, trading at just over $360 per tonne.

Wheat Price (Unit: USD/MT)

Corn

• The U.S. corn crop progress report fell 1 point, with 64% of the crop in good to excellent condition. Hot, dry weather caused corn to wilt as harvest approached.

• U.S. corn prices rose as Hurricane Helene threatened to damage crops in some growing areas. Some corn futures purchases on higher soybean prices also pushed corn prices higher. Lower EU crop forecasts led to increased U.S. corn shipments to the EU, which also pushed U.S. corn prices higher.

• France's corn harvest is behind the five-year average.

• Brazil's corn exports in September 2024 were down 29.2% year-on-year.

• China will plant more corn in 2024/25 to reduce its reliance on agricultural imports.

Corn Price (Unit USD/MT)

Soybean

• The U.S. soybean crop progress report is stable, with 64% of the crop in good to excellent condition.

• The decline in U.S. soybean and soybean meal prices is attributed to the EU requiring soybean imports to be traceable to deforestation-free origins starting December 24, 2024, which will require U.S. exporters to meet additional requirements.

• Brazil’s soybean exports in September 2024 were stable at 5.5 million tons.

Soybean Price (Unit: USD/MT)

Barley

• The US barrley condition rating unchanged at 65% G/E.

• World barley production down due to declines in Canada and the EU.

• EU barley exports as of 29 September were 2.2 million tonnes, down 27%.

• Iran is seeking 120,000 tonnes of feed barley from EU, Russian, Ukrainian, Kazakh, Black Sea suppliers for October-November delivery.

• Jordan issues international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of barley for December-January shipment.

Total Ukraine grains export 2024/25 as of 27/09/202

Russia grain harvest as of 27/09/2024

DDGS

• DDGS prices averaged 142 USD/ton. Prices were up $2 from the previous report and up $3 from the previous month.

• U.S. ethanol production averaged 1,015 thousand barrels per day. This was up 31 tbpd 2.1% week-over-week and up 0.6% with production this time last year.

DDGS Price (Unit: USD/MT)

Ocean Feight Markets

• Shipments on the Maderira River have been suspended due to low water levels, a major route for 43% of Brazil's corn exports and 34% of its soybean exports. This may not affect total exports but increases the cost of using alternative routes.

• The BDI fell 38 points, or 1.9%, from the previous week.

• Freight rates from the US Gulf and the US Northwest to Japan were both down for 55,000-ton vessels.

• Freight rates from the US Gulf and the US Northwest to China were both down for 66,000-ton vessels.