[October 10, 2024] MARKET REPORT

Wheat continues to be the only commodity increasing in price ending last week. According to news reports this was a very high volume futures trading week for corn. soybeans and wheat.

Wheat

• Futures markets made slight gains this week as dry weather concerns persisted.

• The Turkish Trade Board (TMO) has announced that following the end of Türkiye's wheat import ban on October 15, 85% of imported wheat should be sourced from TMO stocks, with the remaining 15% permitted for direct import.

• Following reports of continued dry weather and the talk of grain export restrictions, 12.5% (dry matter basis) Russian wheat prices have jumped from $223/MT on Sept. 30 to $232/MT, according to Fastmarkets price data.

• Australia exported 1,212,229 tonnes of wheat in August, down 18% from 1,478,178 tonnes in July.

• GFSA has booked 307,000 tonnes of wheat in a tender at $265.78/t CFR for December-January delivery.

• Algeria’s state-backed grain import agency Inter-professional Office of Cereals (OAIC) has returned to the market looking for optional origin milling wheat for November 1-15 and 16-30 November loading.

• Bangladesh has returned to the market after seven months of absence looking for optional origin milling wheat.

Wheat Price (Unit: USD/MT)

Table 1: Australian containerised wheat exports for June, July and August 2024

Table 2: Australian bulk wheat exports for June, July and August 2024

Corn

• The US corn crop condition rating unchanged at 65% Good/Excellent.

• India’s corn consumption could spike in 2025 amid expectations that the government may hike its ethanol mandate and force increased use of the grain.

• Türkiye reduces corn import tax to 5% but only applies to volume of 1 million tons.

• Ukrainian market participants have partially switched to selling corn on a “delivered at place” (DAP) basis to avoid the additional risks associated with FOB and CIF trades, following attacks at the Black Sea.

• The feed corn sector continued to see further active price increases, which was still due to high competition between processing and export-oriented companies, insufficient supply of grain on the market due to restrained sales by agrarians and corresponding dynamics on the export market. demand prices for feed corn increased by UAH 200-400/t and formed within UAH 7900-9000/t CPT.

Corn Price (Unit: USD/MT)

Soybean

• The US soybean condition rating dropped 1 point to 634% G/E.

• WASDE production and yield numbers for soybeans were lowered slightly. Farmers are reported to be out harvesting soybeans as quickly as they can with harvest pressure pushing prices lower. The increased strength of the US$ is said to also be a factor in soybean/soymeal price weakness.

• Brazil's soybean exports in September 2024 are stable at 5.5 million tons.

• China imported 11.37 million tonnes of soybeans in September 2024, up 59% year on year.

• China imported 11.37 million tonnes of soybeans in September 2024, up 59% year on year.

Soybean Price (Unit: USD/MT)

Barley

• The US barley crop condition rating unchanged at 65% G/E.

• Australia exported 309,597 tonnes of barley in August. Feed barley shipments hit their seasonal low in August due to lack of Australian sellers due to am extremely tight stocks scenario.

• Tunisia’s state-directed grain importer has issued an international tender to buy 125,000 tonnes of feed barley for shipment to arrive between late October and early December.

Barley Price (Unit: USD/MT)

DDGS

• DDGS prices averaged $146 per short ton, up $4 from the previous report and up $8 from the previous month.

• U.S. ethanol production averaged 1,038 thousand barrels per day, up 23 tbpd (2.3%) week-over-week and up 34 tbpd (3.4%) with production this time last year.

DDGS Price (Unit: USD/MT)

Ocean Feight Markets

The seasonal demand boost has yet to materialize, and markets lack clear direction.

• Marine insurance costs from Ukraine are reported to have increased by 30% in the last few days due to increased Russian attacks on ports and vessels. Cost per ton freight from Ukraine expected to increase by about $1 - 2 m/t.

• Despite firmness to Asia from the U.S. Gulf, ocean rates to Central and Latin America, and North Africa were weaker for the week.

• Freight rates from the US Gulf and the Pacific Northwest to Japan both increased for 55,000-ton vessels.

• Freight rates from the US Gulf and the Pacific Northwest to China both increased for 66,000-ton vessels.