[November 10, 2024] MARKET REPORT

US commodity prices ended the week little changed.

Wheat

The US wheat crop progress report showed 41% of the crop in good to excellent condition, up 3 points from the previous week but down 50% from a year ago due to persistent drought.
Low crop prices have boosted exports as large US harvests have increased supplies.
Cumulative 2024/25 marketing year US wheat sales and exports total 13.9 million tonnes, up 18% from a year ago.
Egypt reportedly bought 290,000 tonnes of wheat in an international tender
Russia exported 1.2 million tonnes of grain last week, 94% of which was wheat, at a spot price of $232/tonne FOB, below the international recommended floor price of $245-250/tonne.

Wheat Price (Unit: USD/MT)

CBOT	208.70	Novenmber 1, 2024
CBOT	210.35	Novenmber 8, 2024

Corn prices have continued to recover over the past two weeks, following the rise in the US stock market and news of Donald Trump's re-election as President.
Last week, US corn exports reached the highest level of all agricultural products and exceeded expectations by 10%, with Mexico being the largest customer at 1.4 million tonnes. However, the pace of US corn exports in 2024/25 is low, compared to previous years and much lower than the 10-year average.
USDA forecasts US corn supply and demand in 2025/26 with highlights including a slight increase in corn production due to increased plantings and higher ending stocks, while exports are down, leading to a downward adjustment in selling prices.
Brazil's corn export pace is slowing and is likely to fall by 10 million tonnes compared to USDA's estimate of 46.5 million tonnes.
Some say Argentina's corn acreage may be higher than the USDA estimates. The country's northern growing regions are likely to receive significant rainfall next week, which could improve crop conditions.

Corn Price (Unit: USD/MT)

CBOT	152.30	Novenmber 1, 2024
CBOT	158.35	Novenmber 8, 2024

US tariff hikes will reduce used cooking oil imports from US biofuel producers, boosting domestic demand for soybean oil, pushing up soybean prices.
Chinese demand has recently provided some support for soybean prices, but the country is expected to shift demand to Brazil to avoid a trade war with the US.
South American soybean production could be 20 million tonnes higher in 2025 than last year, potentially putting pressure on prices from February next year.
Indian palm oil imports jumped 59% in October to a three-month high due to strong festival demand, which has indirectly pushed up soybean oil prices recently, dealers in India said.ctor.

Soybean Price (Unit: USD/MT)

CBOT	361.06	Novenmber 1, 2024
CBOT	377.14	Novenmber 8, 2024

DDGS prices averaged $147 per short ton, up $2 from the previous report and up $1 from the previous month.
U.S. ethanol production averaged 1,105 thousand barrels per day, up 2.1% week-over-week and up 6.0% with production this time last year.

DDGS Price (Unit: USD/MT)

CBOT	159.84	Novenmber 1, 2024
CBOT	161.64	Novenmber 8, 2024

Overall demand is weak compared to the number of ships available.

Freight markets are worried about potential trade restrictions and tariffs under a new US administration in 2025.
With Donald Trump back in the White House, shippers are looking to pre-position cargo to and from China and other countries on Donald Trump’s watch list.
Attacks in the Red Sea and around the Arabian Peninsula have slowed, but shipping is still using the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope, leading to higher container utilization.
Freight rates are essentially unchanged this week.