[November 3, 2024] MARKET REPORT

There was not much change in the price movements of US commodities ending last week.

Wheat

The US wheat crop progress report shows 38% of the crop in good to excellent condition, below all trade forecasts, which ranged from 42 to 53%.
US wheat has continued to maintain its bearish trend since early October amid small increases on expectations of ample supplies in the US and the southern hemisphere.
The Australian wheat harvest has begun in Queensland and New South Wales.
Australian wheat is now considered price competitive with EU wheat.
Ukraine has instituted an export guarantee procedure for agricultural products including grains due to signs that foreign exchange earnings may not be earned. The procedure requires goods to be exported only by VAT payers.
Ukrainian wheat prices hit multi-year highs as supply is insufficient to meet the high demand from producers and traders. Ukrainian feed wheat prices are currently around $201-$228/tonne. The grain market is facing pressure from falling Russian spot wheat prices. Russia has set a floor price for wheat exports at $240/tonne but spot offers are reportedly $2-7/tonne lower.

Wheat Price (Unit: USD/MT)

CBOT	209.16	October 24, 2024
CBOT	208.70	Novenmber 1, 2024

Corn prices have been correcting since the beginning of the month, pressured by ample supplies from a favorable U.S. harvest and a sharp drop in oil prices.
The price decline has stimulated corn demand significantly in recent weeks as U.S. export prices have become very competitive. Last week's export sales were the largest weekly total since 2021. Cumulative sales for the marketing year were 40% above the USDA forecast, the highest level in the past three years.
U.S. corn saw strong export sales to Mexico and a new shipment to Tunisia last week.
Lower production in the EU and Black Sea region is expected to reduce export supplies from the region, allowing the U.S. to attract additional buyers until supplies from South America become available in late spring - early summer next year.
Supply pressure will gradually ease over the next few weeks and demand is expected to continue to increase. Global buyers are seeing significant benefits as prices approach the $4/bushel zone. This has been a strong support zone since early September and it is safe to buy on price corrections in the coming weeks.
Argentina's 2024/25 corn production is estimated at 48 million tons, lower than last year.

Corn Price (Unit: USD/MT)

CBOT	152.58	October 24, 2024
CBOT	152.30	November 1, 2024

US soybean exports were also strong last week but prices were held back by pressure from what could be a record Brazilian soybean harvest.
US soybean export forecasts remain firm going forward with strong Chinese demand.
US soybeans could be further affected by the outcome of the presidential election and the government’s stance on future business with China in the coming weeks.
India boosted soybean oil purchases by 150,000-160,000 tonnes last week on concerns about tight vegetable oil supplies.
China’s soybean meal stocks remain adequate and oil mills are cautious about raising prices.
China is reportedly looking to work more closely with Russia in the soybean sector.

Soybean Price (Unit: USD/MT)

CBOT	365.99	October 24, 2024
CBOT	361.06	November 1, 2024

DDGS prices averaged $145 per short ton, down $1 from the previous report and down $3 from the previous month.
U.S. ethanol production averaged 1,082 thousand barrels per day, up 0.1% week-over-week and up 2.9% with production this time last year.

DDGS Price (Unit: USD/MT)

CBOT	161.40	October 24, 2024
CBOT	159.84	November 1, 2024

The seasonal demand boost has yet to materialize, and markets lack clear direction.

Attacks in the Red Sea and around the Arabian Peninsula have slowed, but shipping still uses the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope.
Freight rates have fallen due to weaker demand and lower crude and bunker prices. The end of strikes along the US East and Gulf coasts has also contributed to the drop.